This means GMs value early round picks too much

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This means GMs value early round picks too much

Сообщение linchao 20 янв 2020, 09:36

NASHVILLE Malik Hooker Jersey White , Tenn. (AP) — The Indianapolis Colts have stood in the Tennessee Titans‘ way starting first with Peyton Manning, then Andrew Luck at quarterback.Now it’s Jacoby Brissett’s turn.And for the Titans, it’s a big opportunity finally to flip the script.Article continues below ...“It’s a new year,” Titans tight end Delanie Walker said. “I don’t dwell on the past. We look to the future. We’re going to try to change that for sure here.”The Titans won the first AFC South title in 2002 after realignment. Then the Colts seized control of the division and this rivalry, winning 26 of 32 games and 13 of the past 15. Even when the Titans won their last AFC South title in 2008, they still split with the Colts.Tennessee opened this season by stunning the Browns 43-13 in Cleveland. A win would be the Titans’ first 2-0 start since 2008, giving them an early division lead over the Colts ,who grabbed a playoff berth from them last December in the final game of the NFL regular season.A win also would show signs of consistency the Titans have lacked for more than a decade.“We’re planning to do a lot bigger things than going just 1-0,” Titans safety Kevin Byard said. “We want to go win a Super Bowl, so that’s something we have to focus on. It’s just another step on trying to go from good to great.”Luck never lost to the Titans in 11 games before his stunning retirement. Brissett stepped up and rallied the Colts from a 24-9 deficit before losing 30-24 in overtime to the Chargers on the road last week. The quarterback is different, but the Colts haven’t changed what they want.“The team that wins this game, it’s going to be a big step, a big momentum maker for the team,” Colts coach Frank Reich said. “Winning the division is the first and foremost goal of most teams, so this goes a long way toward that goal.”Some things to know about the Colts and Titans:MAYBE NOT THE QBBrissett went 0-2 against the Titans in 2017, but Tennessee’s struggles extend beyond just Manning and Luck.When Manning missed the entire 2011 season, Dan Orlovsky ended Indy’s winless season with a 27-13 victory in Week 15 at Lucas Oil Stadium. And when Luck and backup Matt Hasselbeck were both out for the 2015 season finale, Ryan Lindley and Josh Freeman were signed off the street and combined to lead Indy to a 30-24 victory over the Titans.FULL STRENGTHTitans quarterback Marcus Mariota wasn’t the only starter missing the last time these teams played. The Titans also were without four-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Jurrell Casey Womens Peyton Manning Jersey , cornerback Logan Ryan, Walker and tight end Jonnu Smith. All five are healthy, with Mariota coming off his first three-TD game since November 2016.FLUNKEDAll-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard found all the motivation he needed watching film.“An F,” he said when asked to grade his seven-tackle performance in the Colts’ opening loss. “That’s what I got and that’s what I gave myself because I played terrible. I didn’t play up to the standards I have for myself.”Leonard has been here before. Last season in his first NFL game, he made nine tackles and recovered one fumble. The next week, Leonard broke out with a stunning stat line: 19 tackles, 15 solo, one forced fumble and one pass defense. He went on to lead the league with 163 tackles despite missing one game because of an injury.THE LOOKBrissett has only logged 19 starts in his four-year career, but he knows all about Titans defensive coordinator Dean Pees. When asked where he’d rank Pees and the exotic looks he likes to use, Brissett said: “No. 1, for sure.”The Titans piled up five sacks, three interceptions and a safety against Cleveland. What makes Pees’ defenses so challenging?“They do different things, use different personnel, it’s just tough,” Brissett said.”TRY A LITTLE PATIENCETitans rookie receiver A.J. Brown had three catches for 100 yards in the opener, while Corey Davis, the first receiver drafted at No. 5 overall in 2017, was held without a catch. Adam Humphries Womens Malik Hooker Jersey , the Titans’ big free agent signee, caught the only ball thrown his way. Davis said the Titans have a lot of weapons and the ball can go to any player on any given week.“When your number’s called, you got to make the play,” Davis said. Last night, I slogged through 3 hours of NFL bloviating only to be rewarded by Chris Ballard strapping my patience to the rack and turning the crank to the "not tonight, dear" setting.Seriously,..."Last night, I slogged through 3 hours of NFL bloviating only to be rewarded by Chris Ballard strapping my patience to the rack and turning the crank to the “not tonight, dear” setting.Seriously, you can really damage a guy that way. In the 2019 NFL draft, the Colts traded away their 1st round pick to Washington for two 2nd rounders, one of which is payable next year. So, the immediate question is, was it a good trade? I don’t pretend to know anything about college football scouting. I’ve never even done a mock draft, but that’s probably because I have no access to any published collection of information, like some kind of a guide for the draft.Anyway, my point is that I have no idea how to judge a draft trade from a “team needs” perspective and I won’t even try.However, as a numbers guy Andrew Luck Jersey White , I can quantify the hell out of it and provide some context to the value given up and received in the deal. JIMMY JOHNSONI’ll start with the trade value chart made famous by former Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson.For those unfamiliar, Johnson created a table that assigned a value for each draft pick position and since earlier picks are far more valuable than later picks the values had a steep initial decline. I normalized the chart to decline from 100% so you can’t see the actual values, but according to this math, last night’s trade looks like this:.TradeValueTradeValueThe exact position of next year’s 2nd rounder is unknown, so I just used #46 as an estimate, which gives the overall trade a surplus of 180 points.That surplus is equivalent to a free mid-3rd round pick (#82).Woohoo!Of course, the 2020 draft is a year away and so that 2nd round pick should be discounted. I have seen suggestions of a full round discount which would make it a #78 pick worth only 200 points turning the 180 surplus into 60 point deficit.Boo! I think that a full round discount is far too high, but you get the idea of the uncertainty and sensitivity around the numbers. With such a steep decline, small differences can have large impacts.HISTORICAL TRADESIn Jimmy Johnson’s world, a #1 overall pick is worth five #31 picks and because that curve is so steep, it is been discounted by armchair GMs everywhere, who assume that no one uses it (and they are probably right).Rich Hill — managing editor of Pats Pulpit and all around stats guy — put together a chart based on the actual draft trades that GMs have performed. According to his data, this is the actual trade value curve: It’s actually a bit steeper in the first round than the JJ curve, which means that GMs are valuing early 1st round picks even higher.An overall #1 pick on this curve is worth almost 5-1/2#31 picks.That may seem like a steep price but keep in mind this is based on actual historical trades. According to Rich’s math (which uses a different scale), the Ballard trade is:.TradeValueTradeValueWithout discounting the 2020 pick, the trade provides a surplus equivalent to an early 4th rounder (#102) which I guess could be wiped out if you discount heavily (which I don’t). MASSEY AND THALER AND STUART (oh my)Wharton professor Cade Massey and Nobel Prize winning Economist Richard Thaler wrote a couple of papers that compared the market value of draft picks with the historical value of drafted players. Their findings were that, in general, GMs overpay to trade up into the first round.They utilized complex analysis using compensation and player performance to measure the value of each pick Andrew Luck Jersey , which I certainly can’t recreate (let alone fully understand).However, I will leverage (steal) independent work done by Chase Stuart of Football Perspective to give you a simple analogy of what they did.Chase put together a draft value chart based on the career AV of the drafted player by pick position. As you can see the curve of actual player performance is not nearly as steep as the other curves. In the AV world, a #1 pick is worth only 2.7 #31 picks, almost half of Rich Hill’s actual trade curve.This means GMs value early round picks too much relative to what they get out of the players.It is partially this disparity in performance vs price that led Massey-Thaler to their conclusions.Now, I know a lot of you don’t like AV, but even if you use a different production measure like games started or games played or even snap counts, you will see very similar, shallower curves and they all show that it is probably better to trade out of the early first round as GMs are willing to give up more than they actually get. According to Chase’s model, Ballard’s trade looks like this:.TradeValueTradeValueThat surplus is worth a free #82 pick which is exactly the same as the Jimmy Johnson trade value. Hey! what gives?Shouldn’t the AV curve reward trading out of the first more than the other, much steeper curves? Unfortunately, the #26 pick was already too far down the curve.Basically, the slope between #26 and #46 on the JJ curve flattens to the point that it looks similar to the Chase AV curve.Crap, if only we had lost more games last year!CONCLUSIONSo overall, this trade looks good for the Colts, but it doesn’t look great like last year’s absolutely-crushed-it-and-took-them-to-the-cleaners trade with the Jets:..JJRHCS..JJRHCS.JJRHCS..JJRHCSHere are all of last night’s trades listed from the perspective of the team trading down.I think relative to the other trades, Ballard did well. All Trades.JJRHCS..JJRHCS.JJRHCS..JJRHCS
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